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### Miaubol

15th Sep 2019, 10:55 PM

There's a certain risk for that yes.. and poor poor Senny probably has the very same feeling o.O

### Sovember

11th Sep 2019, 3:41 AM

The move from their arguing to “Enough of this bullshit...” LOL

I feel sorry for these helpless peeps, its not many times we see Kobalt play with her food D:

### Miaubol

15th Sep 2019, 10:57 PM

The arguing was probably pretty entertaining but eventually it's enough ;)

Yes, hese peeps may have particularly bad luck, others may rather experience a quick and "merciful" death.

### Greenwood Goat

11th Sep 2019, 9:17 AM

Wait... does Kobolt have clairvoyance or telekinesis?

Kobolt: Because that could make this completely unfair, couldn't it? *wink*

>:=)>

### Miaubol

15th Sep 2019, 11:00 PM

No telekinesis, so she's not able to know let alone manipulate the outcome. Apparently, she's honest about "luck will decide".

...perhaps. We can never know for sure with these people ;)

### True Critic

14th Sep 2019, 11:11 PM

Let's play the blame game before out demise! That's a good way to go out =). Seriously these guys need a miracle.

### Miaubol

15th Sep 2019, 11:02 PM

"I'm doomed, but at least it was somebody else's fault!"

Yes, I fear they're in dire need of some sort of miracle.

### Seabiscuit

15th Sep 2019, 1:27 AM

Ah, I figured she wouldn't let them do that anyway...

I bet it's gonna be her. Oh boy.

### Miaubol

15th Sep 2019, 11:03 PM

Yes, that would have been pretty pointless, considering the whole thing should be about "one of the meaty ones" versus "soft & tender" ;)

Luck doesn't really seem to be on her side, right.. ? o.O

### someone

15th Sep 2019, 11:25 AM

It's probably the best to the be the first one to draw. That way you have 75% chance of not being it.

But if the first guy isn't it, then the second guy only has a 67% chance of not being it. And if he isn't, the third guy has only a 50% chance of not being it. And if he isn't either, then the last one has a 100% of being it.

### Miaubol

15th Sep 2019, 11:06 PM

There, finally, a comment about the math behind this game :D

According to my calculations, it doesn't matter when someone's turn is, the risk to lose is 1/4 for every one of them no matter what. Because in the very end, every one gets one of the four balls, which has a 1/4 probability of being the black one.

But for the love of numbers and detail-

Probability that the first guy will lose

= probability that he picks the black ball = 1/4

Probability that the second guy will lose

= probability that the first guy doesn't lose x probability that the second guy will pick the black ball when it's his turn = 3/4 x 1/3 = 1/4

Probability that the third guy will lose

= probability that the first guy doesn't pick the black ball x probability that the second guy doesn't pick the black ball either x probability that the third guy will pick the black ball when it's his turn = 3/4 x 2/3 x 1/2 = 1/4

Finally, the probability that the girl will lose

= probability that the first guy doesn't pick the black ball x probability that the second guy doesn't pick the black ball x probability that the third guy doesn't pick the black ball x probability that the girl picks the black ball when it's her turn = 3/4 X 2/3 X 1/2 X 1 = 1/4

Yes, there's a 100% risk that she picks the black ball when it's her turn, but only if the game is not over already: there's a 75% chance that someone else has already lost before it's her turn.

So being the last one to pick neither increases nor decreases her chance to survive. It may save her from some distress though. Perhaps.

### someone

17th Sep 2019, 11:39 AM

Yes, of course it's 1/4 for everyone, but each time you see one of your friends get to live, that reduces your own chances of survival.

It's an extra sadistic touch of this little game that it drives you to wish your friends would die.

### Miaubol

17th Sep 2019, 10:21 PM

That's right, and sadistic indeed. Yes, that makes it particularly bad to be the last one- three times hoping a friend will lose, and if that fails, then you know you're doomed. Better be the first one and get it over with right away o.O

## Dera Nuel

### Dera Nuel

15th Sep 2019, 5:20 PM

I don't know what to say. I'm just going to keep reading. Don't wanna make assumptions and they all end up dead.

### Miaubol

15th Sep 2019, 11:12 PM

Yes, those goons may be some further nasty surprises up their sleeves ;)

### AugustaCaesar

16th Nov 2019, 9:48 AM

Skrangle should be an onomatopoeia, no doubt!

Wow, those men have some mighty and meaty packages down there! *cough*

I guess I will not get into the mathematical probability of you being last is actually not the best option (because now you have NO choice). This probably has no rules or fairness anyway.